All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (2024)

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook Summary

The main severe-weather threat today is for tornadoes from Tropical Storm Debby, in parts of North Carolina and Virginia.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 081242

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA

### SUMMARY

The main severe-weather threat today is for tornadoes from Tropical Storm Debby, in parts of North Carolina and Virginia.

Synopsis

Mid/upper-level ridging has been suppressed considerably over the West, as a highly amplified northern-stream pattern takes shape over Canada and the northern tier of the CONUS. A compact but well- defined cyclone – evident in moisture-channel imagery over southern MB – will pivot southeastward then eastward over the MN/ON Boundary Waters region, then Lake Superior and adjoining portions of northwestern ON. As that occurs, height falls and strengthening cyclonic flow will spread over the Great Lakes, contributing to greater poleward advance of the deep-layer low accompanying T.S. Debby.

At the surface, 11Z analysis shows a cold front from northwestern ON across western Lake Superior to west-central KS and southeastern CO, preceded by a strong outflow boundary across western MO, northwestern/central/southwestern OK, the southern TX Panhandle, and eastern NM just south of I-40. While supporting thunderstorm formation today, lack of greater shear will preclude enough severe potential near the boundary or front for an accompanying, unconditional severe risk.

T.S. Debby: NC/VA

The tornado threat from T.S. Debby ramped up again overnight, with several strong mesocyclones and a few tornadic-debris signatures noted. Most of this activity has been occurring in response to two internal factors that continue: 1. Stronger low-level convergence/lift over the northeast quadrant of the system, helping to sustain both a persistent spiral band of embedded supercells and an occasional discrete/semi-discrete supercell outside the band; 2. Northwestward shift of favorable boundary-layer theta-e/buoyancy, as the inland rain shield and its stabilizing effects have shifted likewise, and as the cyclone as a whole has made landfall and moved roughly the same way.

Though the more deeply overland path of Debby will foster gradual weakening of the wind fields overall, per NHC wind-radii forecasts, sufficiently strong low-level wind shear and enlarged hodographs will remain over a favorably moist and unstable sector well northeast of center. In that sector, both band-embedded and discrete supercells should continue to form and move northwestward as the system (and favorable sector) shift poleward. This will spread the tornado threat into more of northeastern NC and into southeastern VA with time today, perhaps reaching parts of central VA by evening.

See SPC Tornado Watch 613 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat. Refer to NHC advisories for latest track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings.

Southern Great Basin, southwestern Colorado Plateau

Isolated severe gusts are possible this afternoon into early evening from thunderstorms over portions of northern AZ and southern UT.

The northern periphery of a trough in the easterlies (equatorward of the remaining ridge) will continue to move slowly westward over western AZ and the lower Colorado River Valley today. This includes a well-defined MCV – produced by yesterday's convection over southern AZ – and now moving west-northwestward roughly over I-10 in western AZ. These features are expected to tighten the midlevel flow gradient northward toward the ridge just enough to encourage slow westward motion of thunderstorms developing this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, North Rim/Kaibab Plateau, and other higher- elevation areas, where heating will preferentially remove MLCINH soonest. Activity in the transition zone between richer moisture to the south, and deeper mixing/dry-thunder potential to the north, will pose a risk of isolated severe gusts from either wet or dry downbursts, with small clusters/cold pools possibly forming also. Peak MLCAPE in the 300-800 J/kg range should overlie a very deep subcloud mixed layer supporting even larger vales of DCAPE, with surface dewpoints commonly remaining in the 40s to low 50s at lower elevations.

..Edwards/Dean.. 08/08/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook Summary

There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic and adjacent portions of New England.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 080452

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE…PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE…WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS…CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND…NEW JERSEY…EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA…CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND…DELAWARE…PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

### SUMMARY

There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic and adjacent portions of New England.

Synopsis

It still appears that an initially prominent ridge will generally be maintained over the higher latitudes of North America through this period, though its mid-level height center may begin to become suppressed to the east-southeast of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant mid-level low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region.

In lower-levels, pattern developments to the northeast and east of the Great Lakes region remain a bit more unclear. A modest initial cyclone, to the north/northeast of Lake Superior at 12Z Friday, may gradually occlude, with varied model output then suggesting that modest secondary cyclogenesis may ensue somewhere across southern Ontario and the lower Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley by 12Z Saturday. At the same time, Debby's remnant low is forecast to accelerate north of the Virginia Piedmont by early Friday, before accelerating north-northeastward and passing near/just west of the Poconos and Catskills vicinity by Friday evening. Eventually, it may interact with a frontal zone trailing the evolving cyclone to the north, and perhaps merge into the cyclone, but these details remain uncertain.

Northern Mid Atlantic/New England

Severe probabilities have been adjusted north-northeastward, based on westward and accelerated adjustments to the official forecast track. Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained at least through the daytime hours Friday.

It appears that the most favorable environment for convection which could become capable of producing tornadoes will be focused near the stronger surface pressure falls, north through east of the accelerating low-level circulation, and just ahead of the mid-level warm core. This may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, much of southeastern New York and adjacent portions of western New England by early Friday evening.

Even if the clockwise curvature to the low-level hodographs does not remain as large as some forecast soundings indicate, downward mixing of strong southerly ambient wind fields (including 40-50+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) may still contribute to potentially damaging surface gusts in the stronger convection. While it seems that this risk may wane overnight Friday, it is possible that low severe probabilities may need to be extended northeastward in later outlooks for this period. Severe probabilities might also still need to be increased across parts of the current marginal risk area, if/when lingering uncertainties become better resolved.

..Kerr.. 08/08/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook Summary

The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 080729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night.

New England

Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low into this cyclonic regime. However, in general, it appears that one initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday night. Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and convective development associated with this regime will shift into the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization.

Elsewhere

Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. This might be accompanied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon.

More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm development appears probable above the western flank of the front, across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through Saturday night.

A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development, where boundary-layer instability becomes diurnally maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening.

Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities at less than 5 percent. However, it is possible that this could still change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 08/08/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080856 SPC AC 080856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast.

As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday.

While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period.

..Kerr.. 08/08/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080856 SPC AC 080856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast.

As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday.

While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period.

..Kerr.. 08/08/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080856 SPC AC 080856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast.

As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday.

While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period.

..Kerr.. 08/08/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080856 SPC AC 080856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast.

As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday.

While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period.

..Kerr.. 08/08/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080856 SPC AC 080856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast.

As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday.

While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period.

..Kerr.. 08/08/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Thursday, August 8

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Friday, August 9

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Saturday, August 10

ANY SEVERE: low

Sunday, August 11

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Monday, August 12

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Tuesday, August 13

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Wednesday, August 14

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Thursday, August 15

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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