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Hronek for Sergachev Kaprizov Ekblad
Created by: hnlnz
Team: 2024-25 Vancouver Canucks
Initial Creation Date: May 26, 2024
Published: May 26, 2024
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Contracts based on AFP Analytics
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JPtGk5m_S9VuR5e7T8lb_BlilXRwJPF0V2ddQzjjpvc/edit?usp=sharing
TRADE: Mar 1st, 2023
NYI 2023 1st round pick (17th overall) + VAN 2023 2nd round pick (43rd overall) —> Filip Hronek + DET 2023 4th round pick (105th overall)
Filip Hronek = NYI 2023 1st round pick (17th overall) + VAN 2023 2nd round pick (43rd overall) - DET 2023 4th round pick (105th overall)
https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/
Filip Hronek = 260.15 + 81.79 - 10.5 = 331.44 = 11th overall pick
2023 11th overall pick = Tom Willander
https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/mock_draft
2024 11th overall pick (BUF) = Konsta Helenius???
11th most productive players from NHL Drafts 8-10 years ago (2016, 2015, 2014):
Mikhail Sergachev, Kirill Kaprizov, Aaron Ekblad
Average Cap % of Last Contract:
[Sergachev (10.30%) + Kaprizov (11.04%) + Ekblad (10.27%)] / 3 = 10.54%
10.54% of $87.7M = $9.24M
In theory,
Filip Hronek = Tom Willander, Konsta Helenius, Mikhail Sergachev, Kirill Kaprizov, Aaron Ekblad = 10.54 Cap %
I'm NOT saying that Hronek is as good as those players, or that Canucks should pay him $9.24M. But the fact is we traded the equivalent of an 11th overall pick/Willander/Sergachev/Kaprizov/Ekblad for him.
I think Hronek is worth around $7M (7.98%) on a max term contract. Also keep in mind that if the cap keeps rising by $4-5M/year, a
$7M x 8 contract = ~$5.94M average AAV based on next year's Upper Cap Limit (87.7).
$7.5M x 8 contract = ~$6.37M average AAV.
$8M x 8 contract = ~$6.79M average AAV.
Free Agent Signings
| RFA | YEARS | CAP HIT | |
|---|---|---|---|
Hronek, Filip | 7 | $7,470,000 | |
Silovs, Arturs | 2 | $1,000,000 | |
| UFA | YEARS | CAP HIT | |
|---|---|---|---|
Stenlund, Kevin | 2 | $1,340,000 | |
Dillon, Brenden | 2 | $2,860,000 | |
Hakanpää, Jani | 1 | $1,510,000 | |
Kulikov, Dmitry | 2 | $2,890,000 | |
Blueger, Teddy | 2 | $2,170,000 | |
DeBrusk, Jake | 5 | $5,800,000 | |
Buyouts
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson: $2,346,667
| Draft | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | Round 6 | Round 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 |
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| 2025 |
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| 2026 |
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ROSTER
LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
EMBED
TEXT-EMBED
| ROSTER SIZE | SALARY CAP | CAP HIT | OVERAGES  | BONUSES | CAP SPACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | $87,700,000 | $86,328,334 | $0 | $0 | $1,371,666 |
Roster
| Left Wing | Centre | Right Wing |
Suter, Pius $1,600,000$1,600,000 C, LW UFA - 1 |
Miller, J.T. $8,000,000$8,000,000 C, LW, RW NMC UFA - 6 |
Boeser, Brock $6,650,000$6,650,000 RW UFA - 1 |
Höglander, Nils $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW, RW RFA - 1 |
Pettersson, Elias $11,600,000$11,600,000 C, LW UFA - 8 | DeBrusk, Jake $5,800,000$5,800,000 RW, LW UFA |
Mikheyev, Ilya $4,750,000$4,750,000 LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 2 |
Blueger, Teddy $2,170,000$2,170,000 C, LW UFA |
Garland, Conor $4,950,000$4,950,000 RW, LW UFA - 2 |
Di Giuseppe, Phillip $775,000$775,000 LW UFA - 1 | Stenlund, Kevin $1,340,000$1,340,000 C, RW UFA |
Podkolzin, Vasily $1,000,000$1,000,000 RW, LW RFA - 2 |
| Left Defense | Right Defense | Goaltender |
Hughes, Quinn $7,850,000$7,850,000 LD UFA - 3 | Hakanpää, Jani $1,510,000$1,510,000 RD UFA |
Demko, Thatcher $5,000,000$5,000,000 G UFA - 2 |
Dillon, Brenden $2,860,000$2,860,000 LD UFA |
Hronek, Filip $7,470,000$7,470,000 RD RFA |
Silovs, Arturs $1,000,000$1,000,000 G RFA |
Soucy, Carson $3,250,000$3,250,000 LD/RD NTC UFA - 2 | Kulikov, Dmitry $2,890,000$2,890,000 LD/RD UFA |
| Scratches | Injured Reserve (IR) | Long Term IR (LTIR) |
Åman, Nils $825,000$825,000 C RFA - 2 |
Poolman, Tucker $2,500,000$2,500,000 RD UFA - 1 | |
Bains, Arshdeep $816,667$816,667 LW RFA - 1 | ||
Juulsen, Noah $775,000$775,000 RD UFA - 1 |
Special Teams
Power Play 1 | |||||
Boeser, B. | DeBrusk, J. | Pettersson, E. | |||
Miller, J. | Hughes, Q. | ||||
Power Play 2 | |||||
Garland, C. | Suter, P. | Mikheyev, I. | |||
Höglander, N. | Hronek, F. | ||||
Penalty Kill 1 | |||||
Blueger, T. | Stenlund, K. | ||||
Dillon, B. | Hakanpää, J. | ||||
Penalty Kill 2 | |||||
Mikheyev, I. | Miller, J. | ||||
Soucy, C. | Hronek, F. | ||||
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Sun. at 9:05 p.m.
#1
MoSeider53
Future Norris guy
Joined: Aug. 2022
Posts: 16,020
Likes: 8,829
None of those 3 are available, And Hronek doesn't return by himself any of those 3 in Sergachev, Kaprizov or Ekblad.
Barryblock and AyitGat liked this.
Sun. at 10:19 p.m.
#2
Ledge_And_Dairy
Joined: Jun. 2019
Posts: 39,333
Likes: 20,222
I understand what you are trying to do here but it's completely irrational. Your math is based on the 11th most productive player from each of those draft years. For example you mentioned Kaprizov who is currently 11th in total points from the 2015 draft, yet chose to ignore that he has played at least 220 less games than the 10 players above him. In pts/g Kaprizov ranks 2nd from that draft class only behind McDavid. This way of thinking also only values points which heavily favors forwards
Sun. at 10:21 p.m.
#3
AyitGat
Banned
Joined: May 2024
Posts: 105
Likes: 20
The wild aren't trading their Franchise player for your Dman, It's not Happening.
Mon. at 12:50 a.m.
#4
hnlnz
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun. 2023
Posts: 40
Likes: 2
Quoting: MoSeider53
None of those 3 are available, And Hronek doesn't return by himself any of those 3 in Sergachev, Kaprizov or Ekblad.
I agree with you. In my description I wrote: "I'm NOT saying that Hronek is as good as those players".
Mon. at 12:54 a.m.
#5
hnlnz
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun. 2023
Posts: 40
Likes: 2
Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
I understand what you are trying to do here but it's completely irrational. Your math is based on the 11th most productive player from each of those draft years. For example you mentioned Kaprizov who is currently 11th in total points from the 2015 draft, yet chose to ignore that he has played at least 220 less games than the 10 players above him. In pts/g Kaprizov ranks 2nd from that draft class only behind McDavid. This way of thinking also only values points which heavily favors forwards
Yes. By productive, I meant: most points. Maybe I should have just wrote "most points" instead. I did not pick the 11th best players from each of the 2014-16 drafts, because not everyone can agree on that. What everyone can agree on is that Sergachev, Kaprizov, and Ekblad have gotten the 11th most points from each of their drafts.
Mon. at 12:55 a.m.
#6
hnlnz
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun. 2023
Posts: 40
Likes: 2
Quoting: AyitGat
The wild aren't trading their Franchise player for your Dman, It's not Happening.
Totally agree with you.
Mon. at 12:15 p.m.
#7
Ledge_And_Dairy
Joined: Jun. 2019
Posts: 39,333
Likes: 20,222
Quoting: hnlnz
Yes. By productive, I meant: most points. Maybe I should have just wrote "most points" instead. I did not pick the 11th best players from each of the 2014-16 drafts, because not everyone can agree on that. What everyone can agree on is that Sergachev, Kaprizov, and Ekblad have gotten the 11th most points from each of their drafts.
It's still extremely flawed thinking. There is a reason Ekblad and Sergachev were both drafted above 11th OA. They rank 11th in total points because they are defensem*n. Again Kaprizov is 2nd in pts/g from 2015.
Reply
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